How a tote operator could cheat

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cosmicway
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How a tote operator could cheat

Post by cosmicway » Thu Jun 29, 2017 8:55 pm

Please consider the following as a mathematical exercise, rather than a real story.

Consider a five horse race.
The total pool is 1000 pounds.
The money wagered on each horse for the win are:

(1) 350 pounds, (2) 300 pounds, (3) 170 pounds (4) 100 pounds (5) 80 pounds

The legal takeoff percentage with which the win pool operates is 15%, so I have to declare decimal prices are follows:

(1) 2.42, (2) 2.83, (3) 5.00, (4) 8.50, (5) 10.62

This works backwards for anyone who wishes to check that those prices correspond to a takeoff percentage of 15%.

take off percentage = 1 – 1 / sum of reciprocals of decimal prices

If I do that, I find 15.14%, the extra 0.14% resulting because I rounded down all the decimal prices to two decimal points.

How can I cheat ?
There are ways.

First, back the winning horse.
Suppose the pool operator backs the horse no 1 500 pounds and the no 1 wins.
Then the total pool becomes 1500 pounds and he collects:
500 x 0.85 x 1500 / (500 + 350) = 750 pounds
plus the 225 takeoff money, total is 975 pounds.
The original 350 belong say to a single punter winner and he collects
350 x 0.85 x 1500 / (500 + 350) = 525 pounds
That’s down from 850 pounds so he got “robbed” of 325 pounds.

This thing however implies the operator has inside information, so he is a consistent winner with the horses he backs.
Not just “inside information”, but the trainers and jocks are like army platoon, going to the office every morning to make report.
It furthermore implies the company is somehow entitled in law to present gambling proceeds as legitimate company income.

Here is another way.
The operator does n’t gamble but he deliberately increase the price on the horses no
(2) and (4) say.
So whereas the (3) pays 5.00 he makes it 8.00 and the (4) he makes 13.50 instead of 10.62.
But to make the formula with the reciprocals work back to 15%, (1), (2) and (5)
are now displayed as 2.12, 2.53, 9.02 or thereabouts.
That’s a cheat and if for example the (1) wins, you get with your 350 pounds only 742 pounds, 108 less.

If we know only the prices and not the breakdown in pounds sterling for each horse then the operator can do that and without effective compliance control it can be done.

This again implies inside information.
But now you ask from the cronies to supply you information about donkeys, not winners which is a lot simpler.


I don’t know what is being done in the UK, but in Greece we used to have a police unit stationed inside the race course.
One-two minutes after every race a race course employee went up to the policemen and passed them the race analysis in computer paper.
This is how they worked when I visited and they said they hoped later on they were going to get computers and do the same job on line, without paper work.
I did not have a chance to visit again.
But is this unit –called “state control”- still functioning ?
Nobody knows.
Back in those years the cop in charge related me how they once caught a woman cashier whose arms were so thin that she could steal winning tickets from the side of the glass panes. After they arrested her, the union of cashiers made an announcement condemning “police brutality and the police state” …
What the new political entities in government do in the modern age of Nigel Farage-Pepe Grillo, I have no idea and no one does.

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Re: How a tote operator could cheat

Post by Jimmy Justice » Fri Jun 30, 2017 7:54 am

In the UK the Tote is owned by Betfred, so no state involvement, however if Betfred can get a bigger 'edge' they will.

JJ

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cosmicway
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Re: How a tote operator could cheat

Post by cosmicway » Fri Jun 30, 2017 3:17 pm

Jimmy Justice wrote:
Fri Jun 30, 2017 7:54 am
In the UK the Tote is owned by Betfred, so no state involvement, however if Betfred can get a bigger 'edge' they will.

JJ
Tinkering is possible then.
But this is about our money. It's not like a bill we pay for some service and we don't have a say about the price. There are some rules and those rules are advertised and should therefore be adhered to.

Here is another crazy story.
In the year 2005 a list of names was mailed to Greek communist mp mrs Kanellis. She said I don't know the strange mailer but I will make it public. In it there were lots of names of people who made many millions out of football betting. Those were names of prominent people, the famous "Kanelli list". The suspicion was that money laundering took place but also that they did not really win, the company gave out the money by constructing the winning tickets after the event. Bribe money and that sort of thing.

I expected the football company to just say "this thing is impossible, we 'd have to hack the computers of the compliance authority" and that might have been it. As for probable money laundering it was not in any case their responsibility at the time.
But the reply they made was rubbish "how dare they say these things against our glorious company, with the scientists, the computer engineers ...", such nonsense.

I 'm afraid that without stringent laws governing compliance, we are becoming Al Kapone states.

Lest anyone thinks I make accusations against him, sports betting exists for over 100 years and will exist 100 years from now.
So what I 'm saying is what kind of law are we going to have ?

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